It’s nearly impossible to spot a cholera outbreak before it happens. Even the best cholera mitigation plans are often reactions to existing outbreaks, trying to help communities already reeling from the illness. But cholera response is changing, thanks to a new predictive intelligence tool that spots where cholera bacteria is likely to be lurking. After three years of development, the tool is ready for the main stage in the public health area. The Vibrio Prediction Hub will give communities the opportunity to take proactive measures — and enhance the resilience of coastal communities throughout Africa.
Cholera is a waterborne disease that infects millions of people each year, particularly in developing countries. It is spread by consuming contaminated food or water, and once people catch it it spreads quickly through a community. The disease causes vomiting and severe diarrhea, which makes people dehydrated. In particularly severe cases it can even cause death. Because cholera resides naturally in aquatic systems, it is impossible to eradicate. It is more prevalent in developing communities that lack access to water and sanitation infrastructure.
Flooding, droughts and other instabilities to a community that can come due to climate change is making cholera outbreaks even more unpredictable. That makes it harder for local health agencies to predict where, when, and how an outbreak might occur. But while the bacteria itself may be invisible, satellites can monitor several environmental and societal risk factors and identify a likely outbreak before it occurs.
Scientists used precipitation, temperature, population density, and water ecology data to identify where conditions are ripe for bacteria to exist. They coupled it with social data like a community’s water access, sanitation infrastructure, and medical and vaccine access. These factors can identify where cholera is more likely to spread and have severe impacts. Data came from several sources, including SeaWiFS, MODIS, MERRIS, Landsat, GPM, and local health agencies’ data. These data sources all came together to power up the Vibrio Prediction Hub.
The Vibrio Prediction Hub is a NASA-funded project led by the University of Florida in collaboration with UN and African health agencies and several non-governmental organizations. It uses adaptive data analytics to develop a decision-making support framework that helps give local health agencies a big picture understanding of cholera risks in their area. The project is also developing a pan-Africa cholera prediction system that will give at least four weeks’ notice on where an outbreak is likely to occur.
This tool helps decision makers move from reactionary intervention to anticipatory measures, like providing aid to the places that will need it most. That kind of advance notice will go a long way in reducing the burden of disease amongst vulnerable communities. The more health agencies can keep an outbreak managed, the more likely they are to minimize the devastating economic damages that follow.